Latest on the Redistribution

Today's Sydney Morning Herald quotes `unofficial Labor analysis' in suggesting that the seat of Riverina will be abolished in the upcoming Federal redistribution. Frankly, I'd consider this highly unlikely, for two main reasons: it's held by a National and a woman - Kay Hull. While the odds are definitely firming that a regional seat will be the one to get the chop, don't think for a second that the Liberal Party aren't going to come out guns a-blazing in favour of Ms Hull - and whatever other National-held rural seats are threatened in the redistribution. Such an approach would have both a practical and symbolic value, given the tricky relations between the two Coalition partners. It's important for the big city cousins to look like they're giving the country cousins a leg up. But there's also the more pressing issue of the ongoing exodus of country voters from the Nationals to Independents such as Tony Windsor, Peter Andren, and, in State politics, Dawn Fardell. In the final wash-up, I'd still be inclined to agree with Andrew Bartlett's assessment - that said country independents would be best to watch their backs ...