Modia Minotaur

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Thursday, February 23, 2006

Latest on the Redistribution

Today's Sydney Morning Herald quotes `unofficial Labor analysis' in suggesting that the seat of Riverina will be abolished in the upcoming Federal redistribution. Frankly, I'd consider this highly unlikely, for two main reasons: it's held by a National and a woman - Kay Hull. While the odds are definitely firming that a regional seat will be the one to get the chop, don't think for a second that the Liberal Party aren't going to come out guns a-blazing in favour of Ms Hull - and whatever other National-held rural seats are threatened in the redistribution. Such an approach would have both a practical and symbolic value, given the tricky relations between the two Coalition partners. It's important for the big city cousins to look like they're giving the country cousins a leg up. But there's also the more pressing issue of the ongoing exodus of country voters from the Nationals to Independents such as Tony Windsor, Peter Andren, and, in State politics, Dawn Fardell. In the final wash-up, I'd still be inclined to agree with Andrew Bartlett's assessment - that said country independents would be best to watch their backs ...

8 Comments:

At 4:36 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought that seemed unlikely too. Jackie Kelly's limelight seeking behaviour shows she's worried her seat of Lindsay is on the chopper. There are rumours that Kerry Bartlett in Macquarie is to be pushed.

I seem to remember that Antony Green is tipping that Andren's seat of Calare will take up some of Macquarie, Macquarie will come east and swallow bits of Lindsay, and maybe some of the Hawkesbury will get hived off into one of the Hunter seats.

If Macquarie comes east then Kelly could take that from the much older Bartlett.

 
At 7:08 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The release of projected enrolment figures has prompted Antony Green to revise his earlier assessment that a country seat will be abolished, and he now tips a safe Labor Sydney seat - namely Reid or Blaxland. He also predicts Bennelong will get very uncomfortable for the PM unless there is political interference. My pet theory has always been that he should replace do-nothing Alan Cadman (now pushing 70) in the obscenely safe seat of Mitchell, which borders Bennelong to the north.

More from Antony here:

http://www.mumble.com.au/federal/green_nsw_redist_200602.htm

William Bowe
www.pollbludger.com

 
At 7:10 pm, Blogger William Bowe (The Poll Bludger) said...

The URL in my previous comment got chopped - add "200602.htm" to the end of it. Or does it work if I do this?

 
At 7:45 pm, Blogger Minotaur said...

Aha - cheers. I was wondering when Antony Green would weigh in ...

The Alan Cadman theory - that is, that attempts will be made to move part of Mitchell into Bennelong - does have some validity. It keys in with the rumour I've heard round my way that something will be done to make Bennelong safer for Howard. The ALP would lobby hard against it, though there's so many safe Labor seats adjoining Bennelong that on paper, it would probably look fair enough.

 
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