Modia Minotaur

Trawling the airwaves to spare you the agony!

Sunday, September 18, 2005

A Sober Assessment of the Triple-M By-Elections

As predicted, Labor easily retained all three seats contested in yesterday's by-elections.

Maroubra, without a Liberal candidate or a clear sentiment towards the Greens, was the most easily retained.

Possibly the most startling result was in Marrickville where, even despite the predictions of an upset win by the Greens, Labor candidate Carmel Tebbutt's primary vote actually improved on Andrew Refshauge's in the 2003 NSW election.

The most concerning result for the NSW government is clearly Macquarie Fields, where there was a 13% swing against the government. Given that the largest individual swings were at booths taking in housing estate areas, I'd say this has more to do with the Macquarie Fields riots earlier this year than the release of the Mark Latham diaries, as some have suggested. It's still hard to say exactly how representative of wider trends this result might be.

All in all, despite the negativity of some media (and, as usual, the plain inaccuracy of a couple of outlets, which I won't even bother linking), a pretty strong result for the Iemma government which - as Iemma said himself last night, and which it's very easy to forget - is a mere five weeks old.


At 7:19 pm, Blogger Liam said...

Greens: "Yay! Our highest ever primary vote in a NSW election! What? We lost? Oh well, at least we still have our snark"

At 8:22 am, Blogger Minotaur said...


Interestingly, if you compare the 2003 NSW election figures to the Marrickville by-election figures, you'll notice the swing towards the Greens is almost exactly equal to the percentage of residents who voted Liberal last time around. Given how many people voted Green first preference, Liberal second preference in the Federal election, it's quite amazing to see them becoming the bourgeois protest party of choice.

Yeah, they can `win the new seat of Balmain ...' if they can convince the Libs not to put up a candidate. Not gunna happen.

At 11:01 am, Anonymous Naomi said...

I was staggered to hear Sam Byrne saying that the rising house prices in the area were boosting the Greens vote (because the richer people moving in were voting Green). Now what does that say about their status as a left wing party? And do any of these voters realise that the Greens have quite harshly redistributive taxation policies, that would adversely affect more wealthy voters?

At 11:42 am, Blogger Liam said...

...and if they can convince the Liberals in Balmain to preference the Greens ahead of Labor.
With Voldemort and the Macquarie Street Death Eaters running the Party of the bosses? Not a chance. In fact, watch for the anti-Green shit sheets.

At 2:06 pm, Blogger Minotaur said...

And yet the bloody Daily Telegraph are still reporting a `seven percent swing against Labor towards the Greens in Marrickville'. I know it's just the not-worth-using-to-pick-up-dog-poop-Terrorgraph, but GAAHHH ... get Antony Green over there to set them straight, dammit!

At 7:05 pm, Blogger dibo said...

strictly speaking, there is a 6.9-something per cent swing on 2pp. the result does not necessarily imply that the libs all voted green. what could also be happening is a bunch of labor voters hopped off and went green, and not enough lib voters could hold their noses and vote for the drug pushing hippies (as i'm sure Voldemort and Death Eaters will be describing the Greens). we just don't know.

At 8:31 am, Blogger Minotaur said...

True, but without one of the major parties that contested the last election, it's simply not accurate to say `7% of people changed their minds'. 7% of people did not have the option of voting Liberal open to them. The only way to really tell who's changed their minds in the long term will be to see who votes Liberal in the next State election.

And I tell you what - if the Greens poll 39% in the next State election, I'll join the Greens. ;)

At 3:08 pm, Blogger dibo said...

spot on, barring the joining the greens bit...

next time around though, we could wind up with the winning candidate getting under 40% primary if the libs do well enough and peel enough votes back from the greens and labor... not likely, but it's a 'could' scenario. my guess is that labor's vote is about right and the greens have hit their high water mark, but that labor needs to treat the seat like a marginals because we simply don't know what the voters are actually doing...

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