The Great Shadow Frontbench Sweep

Tomorrow, Kevin Rudd will unveil his new Shadow Front Bench and, not surprisingly, speculation is rife on the winners and losers. Here's my hastily assembled field guide:

On the Way Up
Lindsay Tanner
Here's my bold prediction: Lindsay Tanner is Labor's next treasury spokesperson. Despite their factional and, I would imagine, occasional philosophical distances, Tanner and Rudd have formed a strong alliance, and, what's more, Tanner is exactly the man for the job. He's got economic credibility and well-earned respect, and it's time he was given the sort of senior ministry that reflects this.

Simon Crean
There's murmurings that Crean will be given Rudd's old portfolio of Foreign Affairs, but I'm not sure that's the right fit. Reportedly, he is interested in an industry portfolio, which would seem to be a better choice. There's no doubt that Crean was not a born leader - however, as Beazley before him, I think he could be a great and reform-minded senior Minister. Gavan O'Connor's Agriculture and Fisheries portfolio will now be searching for a Shadow Minister - it would make a certain amount of sense to combine this into a wider industry-based portfolio, much as occurred with the creation of the Primary Industries and Natural Resources portfolios in NSW.

Tony Burke
Burke has been on the ascendancy for some time - more or less, since he joined Federal Parliament - and this, combined with his part in delivering the leadership to Rudd is likely see him elevated. He's done very well in Immigration, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him given a more senior role. Health, perhaps? Or is that a bridge too far?

Julia Gillard
The fact that Gillard has indicated she will not choose her portfolio can be seen as a veto of the traditional assignment of the Treasury portfolio to the deputy. One intriguing idea I've heard mentioned is that she will take on Industrial Relations. Having the deputy in charge of such a crucial issue would give a strong message, but would she be the right choice?

My tip is that, as a former president of the Australian Union of Students and once an aspiring teacher, she might take the portfolio of her predecessor: Education.

Staying Put

Joel Fitzgibbon
Though the consensus initially suggested that Fitzgibbon will be richly rewarded for his pivotal role in winning the leadership for Rudd, I just can't see him being given a senior role. At most, he may inherit Finance if Tanner moves on, but if Tanner does get Treasury, I think Bob McMullan would be ore likely for that portfolio. Perhaps Resources? As you can tell, I'm not expecting the big leap forward some were predicting.

Tanya Plibersek
There's been some talk of the Beazley-supporting NSW Left being `punished' for their support of the opponent. Personally, I don't think this will be the case, and Rudd won't want to risk the criticism for moving people who are performing well in their roles. I'd count Plibersek amongst the ones who are doing too well for anyone to want to shift them.

On the Way Down

Anthony Albanese
This is unfortunate, as Albanese has been a passionate advocate for environmental issues, but I think the momentum behind Peter Garrett is too large. What may well happen is that a new side portfolio may be split off from the main one - Shadow Minister for Climate Change, for example - and given to either Albanese or Garrett.

Jenny Macklin
As I said before, I've never been particularly impressed by Macklin's performance in Education and, given the various circumstances that surround her, I can't see her taking on a major portfolio. I'm at a loss to say what she might be given instead. I'll pick Indigenous Affairs out of the ether.

Stephen Smith
Smith is another Shadow Minister in a crucial portfolio whose performance has left me cold. Given Rudd's strong early statements on industry, I think it's certain that Smith's industry and IR portfolios will be split. He may retain one, but he may well be shifted downwards, especially given his Rooster status.

Wayne Swan
Will Swan be retained in the Treasury role? I just can't see it. Though Swan has done terrific groundwork in rebuilding Labor's economic credibility, someone with a bit more fire in their belly is likely to take his portfolio. He would be a bad choice to take Rudd's old portfolio, but given an animosity that goes back to their school days, I can't see it happening.

On The Way In
Three vacancies now exist on the front bench, left by the departures of Bob Sercombe, Gavan O'Connor, and Kim Beazley. I would put money on these three filling their place, despite speculation that Chris Bowen may be elevated:

Peter Garrett
Garrett is the only MP Rudd has confirmed as joining the frontbench (which is odd, given there was supposed to vote on it. A move towards the Liberal tradition of the leader hand-choosing the front bench could put some noses out of joint, but that's an issue for another time). As I said earlier, it's reasonably likely that Garrett will be given the job of spearheading climate change and winning the argument over from the Greens. However, I'd also say an Arts ministry is more than likely too.

Bob McMullan
Reports have confirmed my suspicion that McMullan, now the most senior Minister on the front bench, would be interested in making a comeback, having fallen out of favour during the Latham era. I expect he would be given a senior portfolio - again, Treasury, if it's not given to Tanner - or perhaps Foreign Affairs.

Craig Emerson
Emerson's a funny bloke - full of ideas, some of them interesting and some a bit weird. Nevertheless, he's a former frontbencher who, again, fell out with Latham and retreated to the back bench. I can see him as an enthusiastic but controversial Shadow Minister in any one of a range of portfolios. I think he's too erratic to be given anything too hands on ... I'd love to see him oust Stephen Conroy as Shadow Communications Minister, but I can't see King Dalek shifting.

Feel free to make your bets, this is a very cursory list.