Hill to Alight

Rumours are intensifying that Robert Hill will announce his decision to quit parliament today after accepting the position of Australian Ambassador to the UN that was offered to him. Expect a few gleeful faces on the front bench, plus a few agonised ones on the front bench.

The Oz tips either Nick Minchin or Tony Abbott to replace him as Defence Minister. If these are the two on offer, I'd tip Minchin every time, though I wouldn't be at all surprised if Abbott's reshuffled out of Health (The Oz predicts that Brendan Nelson will receive Health in his place, which would seem logical, given that he is a former doctor) and into ... what, Immigration? There's a frightening thought ... though anything's less frightening than Amanda Bereckonedwith. After making such a hash of Immigration, can Mandy be trusted to return to her old portfolio of Education in Nelson's place, or will a newcomer be promoted to the portfolio?

In any case, Vanstone and Patterson are predicted to lose out in the reshuffle, and possibly De-Anne Kelly and John Cobb. Meanwhile, the likes of Julie Bishop, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne and Christopher Pearce are expected to be rewarded. No doubt Malcolm Turnbull will get some token position for his million dollar troubles, but I can't see him in the inner ministry. The full details of the reshuffle are expected to be announced within a week.