An Upset in Pittwater?

The Sydney Morning Herald reports today that the blue ribbon seat of Pittwater could be under threat from popular Independent candidate, Alex McTaggart. McTaggart, the local mayor, first came to prominence when he led a successful push to ban the filming of `Baywatch' on Pittwater Beach several years ago. Liberal Party internal polling reportedly has McTaggart ahead of Liberal candidate Paul Nicolaou, 53.5% to 46.5%, two-party preferred.

I wouldn't get out the champagne yet, though. The devil is in the detail.

Like McTaggart himself, I'd be very sceptical about the fact that internal party polling has been revealed to the media in the first place. Parties pay through the nose for polling; they don't just give it away for free because they feel like it, especially when it's not in their favour. Importantly, the polling also indicates that 13% of the electorate is undecided.

I wouldn't rule out an upset in Pittwater - especially as there's some very peculiar dynamics at play; habital Liberal voters wanting to `punish' the party for dispatching John Brogden in such a nasty way and so forth - but in the main, I think McTaggart put it best.

"This is a Liberal plot to scare the little old ladies into voting Liberal.".

Well put.